Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in universities but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
